The Signals and the Noise: Forecasting Brexit during Autumn 2018

Only two weeks into September and already the noise around Brexit is picking up pace.

Will the U.K. Labour Party change position on a second referendum?  Can cosmetic changes to the Irish backstop make it politically sell-able in the U.K.?  And of course the critical Daily Mail question – will ‘No Deal’ leave the UK more vulnerable to asteroids and space debris?

As we track the debates over the next three months from Brussels to Liverpool, Manchester to Salzburg, we need signposts to cut through the noise.

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Some of the signposts HLC’s Brexit team uses are in the graphic above:

The TUC’s impact on Labour, the Theresa versus Boris momentum during the Tory Party Conference, the wording of the Irish backstop, and rumours around the ‘Salzburg closed door debates’ on blind Brexit and emergency extension in March. These are all pieces forming our scenario planning weighing up a crash out, a transition deal, or an extension in March 2019.

Our current scenario percentages suggest a crash out at 25%; no deal till the week before Christmas; a rejection by the U.K. Parliament, and a panic in Spring 2019 getting 27 countries to agree to an extension after U.K. politics collapses into chaos.

Happy autumn!